The relationship between concealed-carry laws and violent crime remains a contentious issue across the United States. Recent analyses indicate that shall-issue concealed-carry laws may be associated with increases in total homicides, firearm homicides, and violent crime in general, although evidence regarding the effects of permitless-carry laws remains inconclusive.
Studies conducted since 2004 show varying results regarding the impacts of shall-issue laws. A significant number of these studies support the notion that as states adopt more permissive concealed-carry laws, violent crime rates tend to increase. Notably, a 2022 analysis found that these laws led to an estimated seven percent increase in firearm homicides in urban counties, with similarly significant findings regarding other violent crimes.
The scholarly discourse began with analyses by Lott and Mustard in 1997, which suggested that more guns lead to less crime, a view that spurred a wave of competing studies. While some studies indicated declines in crime rates in regions adopting such laws, others found negligible or even adverse effects. A two-way fixed-effects model analysis presented by Donohue and others concluded that, after implementing shall-issue laws, violent crime rates surged by approximately seven percent within five years post-implementation.
The existing empirical literature is marked by methodological challenges such as selection bias, data inconsistencies, and various statistical modeling issues, which complicate drawing firm conclusions. Nevertheless, a consensus from recent reviews identifies that the evidence regarding shall-issue laws generally supports their association with heightened rates of violent crime and suggests that the implications of such laws deserve more comprehensive scrutiny.
MLA Citation
“Gun Policy in America: Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime.” RAND Corporation, 16 July 2024, http://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/violence/concealed-carry-laws.html.
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